Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 87.8%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleMar 30, 26, 2:34 AM UTCMar 30, 29, 2:32 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRules
Marketing this claim: https://x.com/i/status/2038360800004559183
- will create market criteria further on
- Elon claims that there will probably be more great Optimus surgeons within three years AT SCALE than the total number of human surgeons on Earth.
- If this is even remotely true then resolving this YES or NO should be trivially easy.
- If the argument is even close whether Optimus is better than humans, even for a single construction, then I moderatelyy lean toward a NO resolution.
Open markets
AIKALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
- Above 72.5%96%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $73.6K
- 24h Vol
- $73.6K
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-6.0pt81%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.3pt68.3%
- ChatGPT+0.2pt16.4%
- Gemini+0.1pt6.7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11M
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,-0.5pt85%
- December 31,-3.5pt84%
- November 30,-2.0pt76%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- 1510+45.5pt100%
- 1520-9.4pt81%
- 1530-0.1pt4%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude89.9%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT1.8%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $31.6K
- 24h Vol
- $31.6K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for (Musk Prediction) Will Optimus Be the World's Best Surgeon Within 3 years??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 88% as of September 15, 2026.
- When does (Musk Prediction) Will Optimus Be the World's Best Surgeon Within 3 years? resolve?
- (Musk Prediction) Will Optimus Be the World's Best Surgeon Within 3 years? is scheduled to resolve on March 30, 2029.
- How is (Musk Prediction) Will Optimus Be the World's Best Surgeon Within 3 years? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Marketing this claim: https://x.com/i/status/2038360800004559183