Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 88.9%
Forecasters
24
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Nov 9, 23, 12:20 AM UTCJan 2, 30, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Will Poland legalize gay marriage by 2030?
- Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/9825/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
- This question resolves positive if marriages can take place anywhere within Poland between people of the same sex before 2030.
- It is permissible if the marriages can only take place in some parts of Poland but not other parts
- Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for [Metaculus] Will Poland legalize gay marriage by 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does [Metaculus] Will Poland legalize gay marriage by 2030? resolve?
- [Metaculus] Will Poland legalize gay marriage by 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2030.
- How is [Metaculus] Will Poland legalize gay marriage by 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will Poland legalize gay marriage by 2030?