Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 92.6%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJul 8, 26, 8:24 PM UTCDec 31, 99, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Macron vs Owens: Who wins the defamation lawsuit?
MyriadMacron out by which date?
PolymarketBrigitte Macron wins defamation suit against Candace Owens before 2028?
KalshiWho will be the next president of France after Macron?
Manifold MarketsMacron leads EU before 2040?
Manifold MarketsIf a Macron-backed candidate fails to be elected president in 2027, will a far-right candidate win?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if Emmanuel Macron is officially sworn in as the President of the United States of America.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- For the purposes of this market:
- Identification: "Emmanuel Macron" refers to the French politician born on December 21, 1977, who has served as the President of the French Republic.
- Office: "President of the United States" is defined as the head of the executive branch of the federal government of the United States, as established under Article II of the Constitution of the United States.
Open markets
Corporate ActionsPOLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-10.5pt69%
- December 15,-12.0pt65%
- November 30,-12.0pt49%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $3.6M
- 24h Vol
- $85.9K
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T25.3%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt20%
- $1.75–$2.0T-4.0pt16.8%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWho will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
- Baidu-10.0pt38%
- CATL-17.0pt36%
- Tencent32%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+1.0pt91%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+2.0pt88%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-3.0pt83%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill GameStop acquire eBay?
- No+1.0pt93.1%
- Yes-1.0pt6.9%
- Total Vol
- $3M
- 24h Vol
- $13.3K
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
- OpenAI announces bankruptcy by which date?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- NuScale announces bankruptcy by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Macron president by 2100?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 93% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Macron president by 2100 resolve?
- Macron president by 2100 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2099.
- How is Macron president by 2100 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria