Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93.7%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMar 25, 26, 6:08 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurRules
This market will resolve to the percentage representing the opinion of the creator at the end of 2027 concerning whether Sora being shutdown was due to the AI bubble beginning to pop, or that it sparked a pop in the AI bubble.
- At the time of market creation, I would resolve to somewhere between 1 and 3%, representing my opinion that the AI bubble is not yet popped, that there may not even be an AI bubble to pop, and that Sora being shut down was likely due to compute and electricity bottlenecks while other research and profitable models were pursued.
- Update 2026-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For resolution, Sora's shutdown must be causally linked to the AI bubble popping — either as a cause or as an effect of the bubble beginning to pop.
- It is not sufficient for the shutdown to merely coincide with or occur during an already-unfolding bubble pop.
