Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 9:52 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 85%
Forecasters
43
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJul 8, 25, 3:54 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurRules
This market closes 31 Dec 2027 and I’ll settle it during 2028 by giving my honest take.
- If, by then, I feel that 2023-2026 looked like a dot-com-style frenzy i.e., tech and especially AI stocks were clearly overvalued around their 2025 highs it resolves YES; otherwise NO.
- I’ll base my judgment on my own reading of market charts, news, and general vibes rather than any formal threshold.
- Think of it as “does 2025 now look bubbly to me?” that’s the whole criteria.
