Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (95.6%)
Resolved: Aug 20, 2026, 2:49 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastYes 95.6%
Forecasters
39
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleApr 7, 26, 11:53 PMMay 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Probability Timeline
Yes95.6%
No4.400000000000006%
95.6%
4.4%
Rules
This is a tricky topic to define & subjective judgment is required—I will not try to fully define legally precise criteria.
- Trade with caution (I won't trade on this market).
- Context from Reuters.
- Part of Iran's peace proposal is a "Strait of Hormuz fee" that ships need to pay them to pass through the strait.
- This market resolves YES if any ships that passed through the strait on June 1 might need to pay this fee.
- A few details:
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Iran charges "Strait of Hormuz fees" on June 1??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 96% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does Iran charges "Strait of Hormuz fees" on June 1? resolve?
- Iran charges "Strait of Hormuz fees" on June 1? is scheduled to resolve on May 31, 2026.
- How is Iran charges "Strait of Hormuz fees" on June 1? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This is a tricky topic to define & subjective judgment is required—I will not try to fully define legally precise criteria.
