Current community forecast
Some year after 2040. 31.1%Leader of 21 outcomes
Forecasters
147
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJul 2, 23, 11:10 AM UTCFeb 16, 41, 1:48 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If there exists a super-intelligent AI, would majority of AI researchers answer Yes to "Have we reached AGI?" ?
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PolymarketRules
Superintelligent AGI: An AI system surpassing majority human intellect in most or all fields, capable of understanding, learning, and applying knowledge across various tasks beyond single-domain specialization.
- 'Majority of AI researchers' refers to 51% or more of active, globally published AI researchers recognized by reputable sources such as established research organizations, academic journals, or comprehensive surveys.
- The market resolves when such a survey points to a year (even retrospectively) where most AI researchers agreed on the existence of AGI.
- Non-reputable or small-scale surveys will be disregarded.
- If the survey indicates AGI was realized before the market's inception, the market resolves as N/A.