If there exists a super-intelligent AI, would majority of AI researchers answer Yes to "Have we reached AGI?" ?
CustomAI5y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 68.1%
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28
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJul 3, 23, 5:50 AM UTCDec 31, 31, 6:29 AM UTC
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KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRules
Super-intelligent AI :
- "Something along the lines of -> smarter than humans at most cognitive tasks, very very good at some key tasks, and can afford to be indifferent too anything it can't do." (@Duncn's comment)
- "AI that is better than majority of the humans at most economically valuable tasks, but not necessarily better than the best humans in all of those tasks."
- (I created this market to gauge opinion for @Primer's question)
