Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2080-2089 19.1%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
2
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJun 9, 25, 3:02 AM UTCDec 31, 20, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
As a bloc, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN - Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam) already forms one of the world's largest collective economies.
- 2025 IMF World Economic Outlook data put ASEAN's combined GDP at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) at roughly US $13 trillion, versus US $30.5 trillion for the United States — a little over 40 % of U.S. size today.
- Continued rapid growth in populous members such as Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam, together with steady expansion in services and high-tech hubs like Singapore and Malaysia, leads many forecasters to ask when the region might finally grow to twice the size of the U.S. economy in PPP terms.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves to the first calendar year in which ASEAN’s combined GDP at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is at least 2.00 times (≥200%) the GDP (PPP) of the United States, based on the following rules:
- Primary data source — Use the April or October release of the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) for the relevant year.
