In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?
One-OffHealth & MedicineScience16yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85%
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Updated 6 hours ago
StaleFeb 17, 23, 4:38 AM UTCJan 2, 43, 7:59 AM UTC
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Related to ACX post "Declining Sperm Count: Much More Than You Wanted To Know".
- Although this says "in at least one country", this is just about whether one country is able to detect it, and I will only mark it as true if it seems to be related to a global phenomenon; ie if there is a chemical spill in one country that causes its fertility to decrease, this will not count.
