In the next five years, will the people who make the Doomsday Clock declare Doomsday?
One-OffGeopolitics1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 93%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleFeb 1, 23, 6:49 PM UTCFeb 2, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock
- The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, who make the famous Doomsday Clock, thinks (or claims to think) humanity is now closer to global catastrophe than at any point since 1947*.
- I find this rather hard to believe.
- What does Manifold think? Is a catastrophe coming?
- I don't know how they define "catastrophe", so I'll leave it up to them! I'll count it as a catastrophe if the Bulletin says it's a catastrophe -- that is, if they say that "Doomsday" has come.
- * More precisely, that we thought we were at any point since 1947
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for In the next five years, will the people who make the Doomsday Clock declare Doomsday??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 93% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does In the next five years, will the people who make the Doomsday Clock declare Doomsday? resolve?
- In the next five years, will the people who make the Doomsday Clock declare Doomsday? is scheduled to resolve on February 2, 2028.
- How is In the next five years, will the people who make the Doomsday Clock declare Doomsday? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock