If RFK Jr is confirmed HHS Secretary, Marin kindergarten vaccination rate in 2026-2027
One-OffHealth & MedicineUS Politics1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast
96.5%-97.49% 30.4%Leader of 5 outcomes
96.5%-97.49% 30.4%Forecasters
8
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleNov 17, 24, 4:34 PM UTCDec 25, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will RFK Jr. leave the position of HHS Secretary by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsRFK Jr. out as HHS Secretary?
KalshiWill Michael Vassar and RFK Jr talk by EOY2027?
Manifold MarketsWho will leave office first: RFK Jr., Hegseth, or Patel?
KalshiRFK Jr. Out by December 31?
PolymarketWill RFK Jr. have an official role in the Trump Administration at the start of 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
In 2022, the share of Marin County public school kindergarten students with all vaccinations was 96.6%, per the statewide assessment available here: https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/CDPH%20Document%20Library/Immunization/2021-22KindergartenSummaryReport.pdf
- If RFK is confirmed HHS for any length of time, will this number be higher or lower for the report covering the 2026-2027 school year? We will use the same report, if the report is not available, resolves N/A. If no vaccinations are required for public school students, or measurement becomes impossible, resolves N/A. Resolves N/A if RFK is not confirmed as HHS.