Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastJon Ossoff 83.6%Leader of 14 outcomes
Forecasters
46
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleMar 17, 25, 1:16 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Conditional on their 2024 nominee, will the Democratic candidate for president win in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Taylor Swift endorse the Democratic candidate again in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Hasan Piker endorse the Democratic candidate in the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWill the 2028 Democratic candidate lose any state Kamala Harris won?
Manifold MarketsPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
PolymarketIsraeli Legislative Election Winner
PolymarketRules
A candidate is considered "nominated" if they are officially selected as the Democratic Party’s nominee at the 2028 Democratic National Convention.
- If no convention takes place, the nominee is the candidate listed on enough state ballots as the Democratic nominee to win an electoral majority.
- The market resolves as N/A for all candidates not nominated.
- A candidate is considered "elected" if they win the 2028 U.S. presidential election and secure enough electoral votes to become president, with the resolution based on official results from a reliable source such as the Associated Press, the Federal Election Commission, or the final vote count certified by Congress.
- If a nominated candidate drops out, is disqualified, or otherwise does not participate in the general election, the market resolves as NO for that candidate.
- If the nominee wins the election but does not take office, the market still resolves as YES.
