Current community forecast
Kamala Harris 63.5%+4.3pt
Forecasters
18
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+4.3 pts
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleJul 11, 24, 10:29 PM UTCNov 7, 28, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
63.5%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the 2028 Democratic Candidate for President win Pennsylvania?
Manifold MarketsWill the 2028 Democratic candidate for president win every state that has a Democratic senator?
Manifold MarketsWill the Republican nominee or Democratic nominee for 2028 presidential election be a female?
Manifold MarketsWill the Libertarian Party candidate for President receive >1.5% popular vote in the 2028 US Election?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027?
PolymarketPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
PolymarketRules
Each choice should be read as "if X is the 2024 nominee, the Democratic party's chances of winning the 2028 presidential election are Y%", where X is the choice text and Y is the choice probability.
- Conditional will be set by whoever comes out of the 2024 Democratic convention (nominally ending August 22) as the official nominee of that party.
- At that point I will N/A all other options and the nominee's option will remain open until market closes right before the 2028 election.
- Should the party's nominee change after the convention for any reason, that does not change the conditional (aka it is based on who they officially nominate, not who ends up running by the time November rolls around).
- I will not resolve the conditional based on any early virtual roll call or whatnot.
- Conditional resolves after the actual convention regardless of what happens beforehand.
