Current community forecast
Kamala Harris 59.1%
Forecasters
18
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJul 11, 24, 10:29 PM UTCNov 7, 28, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
59.1%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketPresidential Election Winner 2028
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PolymarketRules
Each choice should be read as "if X is the 2024 nominee, the Democratic party's chances of winning the 2028 presidential election are Y%", where X is the choice text and Y is the choice probability.
- Conditional will be set by whoever comes out of the 2024 Democratic convention (nominally ending August 22) as the official nominee of that party.
- At that point I will N/A all other options and the nominee's option will remain open until market closes right before the 2028 election.
- Should the party's nominee change after the convention for any reason, that does not change the conditional (aka it is based on who they officially nominate, not who ends up running by the time November rolls around).
- I will not resolve the conditional based on any early virtual roll call or whatnot.
- Conditional resolves after the actual convention regardless of what happens beforehand.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $804.1K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.4M
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
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- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Conditional on their 2024 nominee, will the Democratic candidate for president win in 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices Kamala Harris at 59% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Conditional on their 2024 nominee, will the Democratic candidate for president win in 2028? resolve?
- Conditional on their 2024 nominee, will the Democratic candidate for president win in 2028? is scheduled to resolve on November 7, 2028.
- How is Conditional on their 2024 nominee, will the Democratic candidate for president win in 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Each choice should be read as "if X is the 2024 nominee, the Democratic party's chances of winning the 2028 presidential election are Y%", where X is the choice text and Y is the choice probability.