If Democrats win the House in 2026, will U.S. real GDP shrink in any quarter of 2027?
EconomyOne-OffUS Politics1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72%
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1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleOct 7, 26, 2:51 AM UTCFeb 15, 28, 5:00 PM UTC
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Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
Condition: Democrats win a majority of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 3, 2026 elections (at least 218 seats won by Democratic Party candidates, counting delegations as certified; independents count for neither party).
- If Republicans or no party win a majority, this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if the Bureau of Economic Analysis's advance estimate of real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) is negative for any quarter of 2027.
- Uses each quarter's advance estimate as first published; later revisions don't count.
- Resolves once the Q4 2027 advance estimate is out.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Republicans keep the House.
