If a Democrat wins the presidency in 2028, will marijuana be federally descheduled before Jan 20, 2033?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection6yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 27, 2026, 3:40 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 61.8%
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1
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated yesterday
StaleOct 7, 26, 2:52 AM UTCJan 20, 33, 5:00 PM UTC
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Condition: the Democratic Party's 2028 presidential nominee wins the 2028 presidential election, as determined by Congress's count of electoral votes in January 2029 (or, if no one has a majority, the House's choice).
- If anyone else wins, this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if marijuana (cannabis) is fully descheduled, removed from every schedule of the federal Controlled Substances Act by law or final rule, with effect before January 20, 2033.
- Moving it to Schedule III or any other schedule does not count.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if a Republican wins the presidency in 2028.
