I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?
AIOne-Off4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 83.6%
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77
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 12 hours ago
StaleDec 21, 22, 8:35 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 7:59 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
Background on me: I rate myself at somewhere between 75th and 95th percentile skill in machine learning engineering [amongst employed professionals of that job title].
- I rate myself at >95th percentile knowledge/skill in the overlap space of machine learning and neuroscience.
- Disclaimer: I may be wrong about these estimates, this is just information for you to use about my opinion of myself.
- Resolution criteria: I must either have successfully done this, or it must be obvious that someone of my equivalent skill level could accomplish this.
- Coding a seed AI that recursively self-improves to AGI counts, if the improvement is accomplished within budget and timeframe.
- Criteria for AGI pretty vauge, but I will try to resolve honestly in way which I believe would be convincing to most neutral parties as of creation of this question.