Will the largest machine learning training run (in FLOP) as of the end of 2030 be in the United States?
One-OffAI4yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 75%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJun 1, 23, 6:55 AM UTCJan 2, 31, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
As of 2023, machine learning (ML) models have been consuming increasing amounts of computational power for training, with FLOPs (floating-point operations per second) used as a measure of these resources.
- The location of the largest training run can be influenced by several factors, including access to hardware, energy costs, and regulatory environment.
- As of December 31, 2030, will the largest machine learning training run (in terms of FLOP) have occurred in the United States?
- Resolution Criteria:
- This question will resolve positively if, by December 31, 2030, there is credible evidence that the largest machine learning training run, measured in FLOP, occurred in the United States.
- Evidence must come from a credible and verifiable source such as a recognized media outlet, a government report, an academic paper, or a company announcement.
