Current community forecast
No 58%
Forecasters
38
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleNov 13, 25, 5:36 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Milestone events in humanoid robot development before 2030
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PolymarketRules
It must use a good old computer + mouse + keyboard or some other setup a human would normally use. it must complete minecraft by itself with no external help during the successful run.
- Update 2026-05-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The robot must control its actions through muscle-like actuators (not just software wrappers that bypass physical actuation).
- The model must physically operate a standard computer setup (mouse, keyboard, or similar human-used interface).
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
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- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
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- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Humanoid robot completes Minecraft before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 58% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Humanoid robot completes Minecraft before 2030? resolve?
- Humanoid robot completes Minecraft before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Humanoid robot completes Minecraft before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: It must use a good old computer + mouse + keyboard or some other setup a human would normally use. it must complete minecraft by itself with no external help during the successful run.