Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 95.7%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingFeb 4, 25, 9:44 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Prediction: By December 31, 2030, a humanoid robot will complete a 13.1-mile (21.1 km) half marathon in under 2 hours.
- Pass/Fail Criteria:
- The event must be a legitimate half marathon recognized by local race authorities.
- The robot must run on two legs with no external power supply.
- Official chip time or race clock must show under 2:00:00 at the finish line.
- Must be documented by official race organizers or credible local media.
