Current community forecast
No 79.1%
Forecasters
42
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 45 minutes ago
LaggingApr 19, 25, 12:36 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria:
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before January 1, 2027, a humanoid robot completes a full marathon (42.195 kilometers) in a time faster than the current official human marathon world record.
- The current men's marathon world record is 2 hours, 0 minutes, and 35 seconds, set by Kelvin Kiptum at the Chicago Marathon on October 8, 2023.
- The current women's marathon world record is 2 hours, 9 minutes, and 56 seconds, set by Ruth Chepngetich at the Chicago Marathon on October 13, 2024.
- For the purpose of this market, the robot must complete the marathon in a time faster than 2:00:35.
- The robot's performance must be officially documented and recognized by a reputable organization or governing body in the field of robotics or athletics.
