Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 91.4%
Yes 91.4%Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleFeb 4, 25, 9:40 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiTotal commitments for the 1win ($1w) public sale
PolymarketRules
By December 31, 2030, a humanoid robot (legs, arms, torso in roughly human form) with no external power source or tether will complete an official 10-kilometer race in under 1 hour.
- Verification Criteria:
- Race format: Any officially recognized 10K (e.g., a local marathon event’s 10K division).
- Humanoid form: Must have two legs, two arms, and a torso, moving in a bipedal (human-like) gait.
- Power: No cables, no battery swapping mid-race, no external power assist.
- Time limit: Cross the official finish line in < 60 minutes, as recorded by event timing.