How many nights will Sarkozy spend in jail?
PoliticsManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: 7 - 29 nights (<1 month)
Resolved: Nov 10, 2025, 4:42 PM
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current community forecast7 - 29 nights (<1 month) 100%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
5
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 165 days ago
StaleOct 2, 25, 11:03 PMNov 10, 25, 4:42 PM
Probability Timeline
0 nights0%
1 night0%
2 - 6 nights (<1 week)0%
7 - 29 nights (<1 month)100%
30 - 364 nights (1 - 11 months)0%
1 - 2 years0%
More than 2 years0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
On September 25, 2025, former French President Nicolas Sarkozy was sentenced to 5 years in prison for criminal conspiracy in the Libyan campaign financing case.
- The court issued a deferred detention order with provisional execution, meaning he will be imprisoned despite his appeal.
- He is scheduled to appear before prosecutors on October 13, 2025 to receive his incarceration date (which must occur by February 13, 2026 at the latest).
- Once imprisoned, he can request release pending appeal, with courts having 2 months to decide.
- Key sources:
- - [CNN: Sarkozy sentenced to 5 years](https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/25/europe/sarkozy-trial-libya-verdict-intl)
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How many nights will Sarkozy spend in jail??
- Manifold Markets prices 7 - 29 nights (<1 month) at 100% as of March 9, 2026.
- When does How many nights will Sarkozy spend in jail? resolve?
- How many nights will Sarkozy spend in jail? is scheduled to resolve on November 10, 2025.
- How is How many nights will Sarkozy spend in jail? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: On September 25, 2025, former French President Nicolas Sarkozy was sentenced to 5 years in prison for criminal conspiracy in the Libyan campaign financing case.