Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastOther 83.8%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
33
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-2.8 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleOct 16, 25, 9:50 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurRules
Trigger for the market popping will be based on my subjective experience as a consultant dealing with tech start-ups and established businesses every day.
- Significant movement of tech stocks tied to an abandonment of AI, AI becoming a dirty word and everyone pivoting away from that branding (See: Web3.0), total loss of interest in AI in the venture capital space, this is a non-extensive list of things that would contribute to me considering the bubble popped.
- If, however, AI slowly fades into the background of everyone’s lives, with no significant evaluation adjustments associated with it failing in prominence, would not constitute a bubble popping (see also: the smartphone/app boom of the early to mid 2010s, no one gives a shit about apps any more, they are not cool, they are not the next big thing, but the hype died quietly and gracefully, and they just became a ubiquitous part of billions of people’s lives)
- If the market is still going strong in 2030, I will resolve this to no pop, otherwise, I’ll keep adding new options as required until then.
- Update: 2025-10-16:
- We already have naysayers claiming a hot startup from a couple months ago is dead, on account of them having made a lot of noise, but having a non-functional product they cannot maintain
