What are the current odds for Will there be an AI bubble before 2030??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 68.1% as of October 26, 2026.

When does Will there be an AI bubble before 2030? resolve?

Will there be an AI bubble before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 68.1%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 21 hours ago

Stale

Aug 1, 26, 4:23 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 4:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Will there be a general consensus among economists that markets significantly overvalued AI companies at any point during this decade?

This market will close early and resolve as YES if there is clear evidence of a bubble before the resolution date.
It will resolve as NO if there is still no clear evidence of an AI valuation bubble by the resolution date.
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