Current community forecast
No 56.3%
Forecasters
29
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jul 4, 26, 1:37 PM UTCJul 31, 30, 6:30 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
At the rate that wealth and wealth concentration is expanding, there will be enough wealth with the wealthiest person by 2110 that will be in the hundreds of trillions of dollars that building a generation starship will be like embarking on a 5 decade welfare program of a large economy of today, except in the hands of a committed multicentitrillionaire
- (Gemini AI's Version)
- If the Bloomberg Billionaires Index or its widely recognized equivalent certifies any individual's net worth at or above $2.0 Trillion (USD) at any point before July 1, 2030, will the Metaculus community consensus probability for a 'Generation Starship launch by 2150' close above 1.0% on July 31, 2030?
- Update 2026-09-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * If the referenced Metaculus question is never asked, the market will resolve to NO.
Open markets
AI
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- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
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+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
- $116.6K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.5M
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
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- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $374.6K
- 24h Vol
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- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.0pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Generation Starship By 2150?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 56% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Generation Starship By 2150 resolve?
- Generation Starship By 2150 is scheduled to resolve on July 31, 2030.
- How is Generation Starship By 2150 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: At the rate that wealth and wealth concentration is expanding, there will be enough wealth with the wealthiest person by 2110 that will be in the hundreds of trillions of dollars that building a generation starship will be like embarking on a 5 decade welfare program of a large economy of today, except in the hands of a committed multicentitrillionaire