This market resolved: 35%+
Resolved: Sep 12, 2026, 11:29 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
35%+
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
99%
ConsensusData quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 13, 2026, 2:55 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
35%+97%
40%+0%
45%+3%
50%+4%
55%+2%
35%+Won
40%+Lost
45%+Lost
50%+Lost
55%+Lost
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Grok Model (4.6+) model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results.
- A qualifying SpaceXAI model must have “Grok” in its displayed model name and be designated as version 4.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
- For example, grok-4.6-high, grok-4.7-thinking, grok-5, or similar would qualify.
- Models whose displayed name does not include “Grok,” or which retain a version designation below 4.6, such as grok-4.1-expert, grok-4.3-heavy, grok-4.5-GA will not qualify.
