Current implied probability
35%+ 92%+2.5ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
55 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$690.7
Liquidity
$1K
Low liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+26.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Aug 11, 26, 9:01 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsWill the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Grok Model (4.6+) model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results.
- A qualifying SpaceXAI model must have “Grok” in its displayed model name and be designated as version 4.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
- For example, grok-4.6-high, grok-4.7-thinking, grok-5, or similar would qualify.
- Models whose displayed name does not include “Grok,” or which retain a version designation below 4.6, such as grok-4.1-expert, grok-4.3-heavy, grok-4.5-GA will not qualify.