What are the current odds for Will there be more than 1GW of in-space solar power generation by 2030??

Manifold Markets prices No at 58.4% as of October 30, 2026.

Will there be more than 1GW of in-space solar power generation by 2030?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

No 58.4%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Lagging

Feb 13, 24, 11:26 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

This would be for an average, not peak, so after accounting for intermittency.

Credible estimates will be accepted as source to resolve YES.
Solar power does not have to be beamed back, power is counted after conversion to electricity, but before use