Gary Marcus prediction: physical reasoning of AI systems will improve before psychological reasoning
AIOne-Off
Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (89.8%)
Resolved: Oct 18, 2026, 4:17 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
No
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
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Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 18, 2026, 9:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes10.2%
No89.8%
Won
Lost
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https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime
- Resolves very subjectivly; don't bet if you don't trust my judgement.
- Physical reasoning includes things like driving cars, cleaning houses, and other use-cases that involve understanding directions and distances in the real world and manipulating physical objects.
- Psychological reasoning includes things like understanding human thoughts and ideas, making art and mathematical discoveries, writing computer programs, etc. This market resolves once it seems that AI's mastery of one of those domains has radically improved over the status quo in January of 2023.
- For example if before we reach AGI we get self-driving cars that are radically safer than humans in all situations, this will probably resolve YES.
