By what date will all state-of-the-art general-purpose AI systems not be reasoning models?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for By what date will all state-of-the-art general-purpose AI systems not be reasoning models??

Manifold Markets prices 01.01.2030 at 59% as of October 22, 2026.

When does By what date will all state-of-the-art general-purpose AI systems not be reasoning models? resolve?

By what date will all state-of-the-art general-purpose AI systems not be reasoning models? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.

How is By what date will all state-of-the-art general-purpose AI systems not be reasoning models? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market is part of the paper: A Concrete Roadmap towards Safety Cases based on Chain-of-Thought Monitoring

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KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Mar 1, 2027+10.0pt91.5%
• Before Apr 1, 2027+4.0pt90.5%
• Before Feb 1, 2027+8.0pt86%

+9 more outcomes

Total Vol

$3.3M

24h Vol

$414K

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google-0.8pt81.8%
• Anthropic+2.5pt18.2%
• Alibaba0%

+18 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?

• December 31-0.3pt97%
• October 31-20.3pt57%
• October 29-9.5pt56%

+17 more outcomes

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude-1.0pt49.9%
• Gemini+0.8pt38.5%
• ChatGPT-0.1pt

POLYMARKET

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

• ↑$1.5T93%
• ↑$1.75T+1.5pt71%
• ↑$2.0T+0.5pt62%

+10 more outcomes

KALSHI

Anthropic market share this week

• Above 4.1%+6.0pt99.5%
• Above 3.7%99.5%
• Above 4.8%98%

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