Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No change
Resolved: Jul 29, 2026, 6:23 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastNo change 100%+26.6ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
53
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 22 days ago
StaleJun 23, 26, 3:43 PMJul 29, 26, 6:23 PM
Probability Timeline
25 bps decrease0%
No change100%
25 bps increase0%
50 bps increase0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
This market resolves based on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate from its level immediately before the July 2026 FOMC meeting (July 28-29, 2026).
- The outcome is determined by the net basis-point change announced in the official July FOMC statement.
- If the Fed changes the rate by an amount not matching a displayed option, the change will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps for resolution (e.g., a 12.5 bps move is treated as 25 bps).
- Resolution Sources:
- The official FOMC statement for the July 2026 meeting:
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
