Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastHakeem Jeffries & Chuck Schumer 46.2%+6.9ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
7
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+6.9 pts
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Mar 21, 26, 10:27 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which party will control congress after the 2028 elections
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Polymarket2028 Democratic presidential nominee
KalshiWhich party will win the U.S. House?
Kalshi2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
KalshiFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves according to the leaders of the house Democratic caucus and senate Democratic caucus after votes have been cast for their leaders, temporary or acting leaders don’t count.
- Does not matter if the caucus is in the majority or minority, this is caucus vote not speaker vote.
- Hakeem Jeffries and NOT Jeffries are the house options, Chuck Schumer and NOT Schumer are the senate options.
Open markets
PoliticsKALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.9%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15.8%
- Gavin Newsom13.7%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $222.4M
- 24h Vol
- $814.6K
KALSHIWhat will Trump say this week?
- TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome99%
- Barack Hussein Obama99%
- Cuba / Cuban99%
+34 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
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KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.3pt91.1%
- Republican Party-0.6pt8.9%
- Total Vol
- $34M
- 24h Vol
- $468.7K
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+1.0pt60%
- D-House, R-Senate30%
- Republicans sweep-0.6pt9%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $17.1M
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.8pt3%
- April 300%
- June 300%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
- December-2.0pt19%
- October13%
- September 30,-0.8pt4%
- Total Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Democratic Leaders in Congress after 2026 elections??
- Manifold Markets prices Hakeem Jeffries & Chuck Schumer at 46% as of September 21, 2026.
- When does Democratic Leaders in Congress after 2026 elections? resolve?
- Democratic Leaders in Congress after 2026 elections? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Democratic Leaders in Congress after 2026 elections? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves according to the leaders of the house Democratic caucus and senate Democratic caucus after votes have been cast for their leaders, temporary or acting leaders don’t count.