Current community forecast
Democratic 50%-2.6ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
12
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-2.6 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleMar 27, 26, 10:05 AM UTCNov 7, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Democratic Leaders in Congress after 2026 elections?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will control the Senate after the 2026 election?
PredictItWhich party will control the House after the midterm elections?
SmarketsWhich party will control the Senate after the midterm elections?
SmarketsWill the same party control the U.S. House and Senate?
KalshiWhich party will control the US senate after the 2030 midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- Congress control will be determined by the results of elections held on November 7, 2028, when 34 Senate seats and all 435 House seats are up for election.
- The market resolves based on which party holds majorities in both chambers of the 121st Congress beginning January 3, 2029.
- Republican control: Republicans hold majorities in both the Senate (51+ seats) and House (218+ seats).
- Democratic control: Democrats hold majorities in both the Senate (51+ seats) and House (218+ seats).
- the named outcome control: A party other than Republican or Democratic holds majorities in both chambers, or no single party controls both chambers.
Open markets
PoliticsKALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.9%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15.8%
- Gavin Newsom13.7%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $222.4M
- 24h Vol
- $814.6K
KALSHIWhat will Trump say this week?
- TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome99%
- Barack Hussein Obama99%
- Cuba / Cuban99%
+34 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
- $671.2K
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.3pt91.1%
- Republican Party-0.6pt8.9%
- Total Vol
- $34M
- 24h Vol
- $468.7K
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+1.0pt60%
- D-House, R-Senate30%
- Republicans sweep-0.6pt9%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $17.1M
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- December 31-0.8pt3%
- April 300%
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- December-2.0pt19%
- October13%
- September 30,-0.8pt4%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which party will control congress after the 2028 elections?
- Manifold Markets prices Democratic at 50% as of September 21, 2026.
- When does Which party will control congress after the 2028 elections resolve?
- Which party will control congress after the 2028 elections is scheduled to resolve on November 7, 2028.
- How is Which party will control congress after the 2028 elections settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria