Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast2060 75%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
35
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleDec 9, 23, 10:29 AM UTCJan 1, 60, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Malaria be eradicated in humans before 2030?
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Manifold MarketsRules
Each date resolves YES if Malaria has been declared eradicated by the WHO (or an equivalent declaration by an appropriate organization of similar status if N/A) before Jan 1st of that year.
- With regards to ambiguity of resolution my intent with this market is: "the time at which there has been a period of no recent Malaria deaths and a reasonable expectation of no further deaths in future, as declared by an authoritative organisation" and I will seek the most objective way of defining that.
- The WHO's declaration of Smallpox eradication in 1980 would be analogous.
