Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBefore 2038 80%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
5
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+30.0 pts
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Sep 9, 26, 6:12 PM UTCJan 1, 40, 8:00 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiTurner Prize 2026 Winner
PolymarketRules
I'm trying to point at jobs that can "in theory" be done by a sufficiently good multi-modal LLM.
- If the job requires only the production of digital artifacts, it counts.
- On the other hand I'm excluding:
- Jobs that require physical interaction with the world
- Jobs that depend on significant interaction with humans external to the organization
- In other words: I'm not asking when robotics will be solved, and I'm not asking when humans will be comfortable interacting with an AI.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+24.5pt89%
- 2026+59.0pt82%
- September 30, 2026+56.0pt63%
- Total Vol
- $109K
- 24h Vol
- $69.2K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.1pt62%
- ChatGPT-1.9pt21%
- Gemini+1.3pt7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.7M
POLYMARKETOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+53.0pt93%
- 2026+53.5pt73%
- September 30, 2026+51.5pt57%
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.25%-7.0pt88%
- Above 2.45%79%
- Above 2.6%+16.0pt56%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $70.6K
POLYMARKETWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Hodge Conjecture50.5%
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer27.1%
- No solution by Dec 31, 202710.3%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $37.6K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+1.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.8M
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- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for By what year will almost all "LLM-domain" jobs be automatable??
- Manifold Markets prices Before 2038 at 80% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does By what year will almost all "LLM-domain" jobs be automatable? resolve?
- By what year will almost all "LLM-domain" jobs be automatable? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2040.
- How is By what year will almost all "LLM-domain" jobs be automatable? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I'm trying to point at jobs that can "in theory" be done by a sufficiently good multi-modal LLM.