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  1. Prediction Markets
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  3. By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?
Manifold Markets

By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?

One-OffAITechScience3y
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
Yes 21.5%
Forecasters

34

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated yesterday

Stale
Apr 22, 24, 9:43 PMDec 28, 29, 7:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Yes22%

Rules

Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.

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Rules

Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.

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