Current community forecast
Yes 67.2%
Forecasters
38
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Apr 22, 24, 9:43 PM UTCDec 28, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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From this article regarding an interview with Dario Amodei: https://futurism.com/the-byte/anthropic-ceo-ai-replicate-survive
- When Klein asked how long it would take to get to these various threat levels, Amodei — who said he's wont to thinking "in exponentials" — said he thinks the "replicate and survive in the wild" level could be reached "anywhere from 2025 to 2028."
- "I’m truly talking about the near future here.
- I’m not talking about 50 years away," the Anthropic CEO said. "God grant me chastity, but not now.
- But 'not now' doesn’t mean when I’m old and gray.
- I think it could be near-term."
Open markets
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+3 more outcomes
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- December 15,+3.5pt90%
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+7 more outcomes
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+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
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- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
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+4 more outcomes
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- 24h Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 67% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”? resolve?
- By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”? is scheduled to resolve on December 28, 2029.
- How is By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: From this article regarding an interview with Dario Amodei: https://futurism.com/the-byte/anthropic-ceo-ai-replicate-survive