By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 67.2% as of October 24, 2026.

When does By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”? resolve?

By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”? is scheduled to resolve on December 28, 2029.

How is By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: From this article regarding an interview with Dario Amodei: https://futurism.com/the-byte/anthropic-ceo-ai-replicate-survive

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POLYMARKET

OpenAI announces bankruptcy by which date?

• 2029+1.0pt20%
• 2028+1.0pt16%
• 2027+2.0pt9%

Total Vol

$433.1K

24h Vol

$71.8K

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T-1.0pt28.9%
• $1.5–$1.75T+2.4pt18.3%
• $2.0–$2.25T-0.5pt18.3%

+7 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,-1.0pt78%
• December 15,74%
• November 30,+7.0pt65%

+9 more outcomes

Total Vol

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google+3.2pt90.9%
• Anthropic-2.5pt8.1%
• OpenAI-0.1pt1%

+18 more outcomes

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 2027+2.0pt92.5%
• Before Mar 1, 202791.5%
• Before Feb 1, 2027-3.0pt88.5%

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude-0.7pt49.5%
• Gemini+0.1pt38%
• ChatGPT8.3%

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