Will *any 2* of Sam Altman/Dario Amodei/liang wenfeng/Yang Zhilin all feast at Hongmen Gate by EOY2035?
AIOne-Off9yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 50%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleOct 24, 26, 10:55 AM UTCDec 31, 35, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Liang Wenfeng in Forbes' Top 10 Billionaires List by December 31, 2035
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Altman and Dario Amodei hold hands again, before 2030?
Manifold MarketsBefore 2028, will Liang Wenfeng (of DeepSeek) be disappeared by the CCP for more than a month?
Manifold MarketsWill Dario Amodei write an essay on what powerful AI will look like, and/or when it will arrive, by October 2027?
Manifold MarketsDario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketDario Amodei out as Anthropic CEO this year?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.