By 2040, a major government will have adopted transgender contagion theory and claimed to have control over the outbreak
Russia / UkraineOne-OffHealth & MedicineChina13yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 62.5%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleSep 27, 23, 2:45 AM UTCJan 2, 40, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
By 2040, a major government will have adopted transgender contagion theory and claimed to have control over the outbreak.
- This will be achieved by banning transgender content from media and by general control over information and disinformation.
- Any officially recognized transgender people will be managed by coerced interventions, either penal or psychiatric, or possibly alternative therapeutic interventions like behavioral therapies, wilderness retreats etc.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for By 2040, a major government will have adopted transgender contagion theory and claimed to have control over the outbreak?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 63% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does By 2040, a major government will have adopted transgender contagion theory and claimed to have control over the outbreak resolve?
- By 2040, a major government will have adopted transgender contagion theory and claimed to have control over the outbreak is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2040.
- How is By 2040, a major government will have adopted transgender contagion theory and claimed to have control over the outbreak settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: By 2040, a major government will have adopted transgender contagion theory and claimed to have control over the outbreak.
