Before 2030, will we have AI that can play Minecraft, understand movies, etc. and not resist shutdown?
AIOne-Off3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 60.5%
Forecasters
49
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleDec 17, 23, 2:34 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
https://twitter.com/MatthewJBar/status/1736322631941620008
- Resolves based on whether this tweet broadly seems correct.
- A single AI trained on language and other modalities must be able to do all of those things, particularly the agentic long-term planning and world modeling needed for that Minecraft objective.
- It must be capable of doing them in sequence, transferring knowledge and intention across contexts.
- It must not appear to care in any way if it's shut down.
- (It must have the ability to meaningfully prevent shutdown, since otherwise it would obviously just lie.)
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Before 2030, will we have AI that can play Minecraft, understand movies, etc. and not resist shutdown??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 61% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Before 2030, will we have AI that can play Minecraft, understand movies, etc. and not resist shutdown? resolve?
- Before 2030, will we have AI that can play Minecraft, understand movies, etc. and not resist shutdown? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2030.
- How is Before 2030, will we have AI that can play Minecraft, understand movies, etc. and not resist shutdown? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: https://twitter.com/MatthewJBar/status/1736322631941620008