Before 2030, will we have AI that can play Minecraft, understand movies, etc. and not resist shutdown?
AIOne-Off3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 83.8%
Forecasters
51
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleDec 17, 23, 2:34 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
[Carlini questions] Chance off-the-shelf AI system can play as well as casual player on arbitrary board game given rules
Manifold MarketsBy 2028, AI can play new levels of "Angry Birds" better than the best human players.
Manifold MarketsBy 2030, AI can autonomously prove mathematical theorems that are publishable in mathematics journals today?
Manifold MarketsWill we have AI that can explain chess moves logic in human language by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWho is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRules
https://twitter.com/MatthewJBar/status/1736322631941620008
- Resolves based on whether this tweet broadly seems correct.
- A single AI trained on language and other modalities must be able to do all of those things, particularly the agentic long-term planning and world modeling needed for that Minecraft objective.
- It must be capable of doing them in sequence, transferring knowledge and intention across contexts.
- It must not appear to care in any way if it's shut down.
- (It must have the ability to meaningfully prevent shutdown, since otherwise it would obviously just lie.)
