ARC-AGI-3 Kaggle competition: what will the #1 public leaderboard score be at the final deadline (Nov 2, 2026)?
AIOne-Off8d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 2:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast65% to under 80% 41%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
2
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleOct 7, 26, 6:13 AM UTCNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
ARC Prize 2026 runs its ARC-AGI-3 competition on Kaggle: https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/arc-prize-2026-arc-agi-3/leaderboard
- The score is RHAE (Relative Human Action Efficiency): how efficiently an agent solves the interactive games compared with a human baseline, where 100% means human-level efficiency.
- The leaderboard has moved fast.
- The Milestone #1 winner scored 1.21%.
- The reported Milestone #2 high (Sept 30) was 27.9%.
- By Oct 4, an open-sourced harness had reportedly taken the top public score to 55.89% (https://www.techtimes.com/articles/328542/20261006/arc-agi-3-scaffolding-beats-model-upgrades-same-ai-two-settings-49x-score-gain.htm).
