Current community forecast
Yes 58.5%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleMay 19, 25, 12:14 PM UTCJun 30, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Hinge #2 bet proposed in this post: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/45oxYwysFiqwfKCcN/untitled-draft-keg3
- "If the fastest models trained in mid‑2027 require one‑quarter the elapsed time of equally large runs eighteen months earlier without a node shrink below four nanometres, that will be strong evidence that software‑only acceleration is real, and is not highly bottlenecked by compute or real-world experiments slowing the AI researchers down."
- The other bets:
- #1: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/nvidias-datacenter-revenue-and-bigt
- #3: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/revenue-per-deployed-h100-exceeds-1
- #4: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/g7-country-manages-three-years-of-6
