Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (97.4%)
Resolved: Oct 11, 2026, 7:33 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 6, 2026, 5:55 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Trends
Won
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2027?
Manifold MarketsAI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2028?
Manifold MarketsAI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 7 minutes before 2028?
Manifold MarketsAI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2029?
Manifold MarketsAll Millennium Prize Problems solved before 2030?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
PolymarketRules
Jack Clark predicts YES: https://importai.substack.com/p/import-ai-439-ai-kernels-decentralized.
- Resolves to YES if any LLM released prior to 1 Oct 2026 exceeds the human baseline of 61.77% on https://posttrainbench.com/.
- Reasonable time (to at most 1 Nov) will be given after the deadline in case a model is released close to the deadline that might do it.
- Result does not have to appear on posttrainbench.com per se but needs to be credible, and not contradicted by the website.
- Resolves to NO if this does not occur.
- (Identical market to: source market)
