This market resolved: Yes (81%)
Resolved: Oct 21, 2026, 12:30 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 21, 2026, 4:41 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Trends
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a general-purpose CHERI CPU ship ≥10,000 units by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the EU order a general-purpose AI model withdrawn or restricted from its market before 2027?
FutuurWill there be a publicly available AI with Anthropic Mythos-level capabilities before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a major AI lab announce that the weights of one of its models were compromised in a cyberattack before 2027?
Manifold MarketsUS Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?
PolymarketThird-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketRules
Publicly available: Must be available to normal users (paid ok) at some point before 2027.
- General purpose: This is based on advertising and positioning of the model.
- GPT-5.3-Codex would not count because it's positioned as a Codex-specific model, as evidenced by its exclusive availability within Codex.
- GPT-5.2 would count.
- In general if the model is released within a chatbot, that's sufficient to make it general purpose.
- Major AI Labs: For this market, this list includes OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, xAI, and DeepSeek.
