Current community forecast
No 63.7%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleMar 3, 26, 5:35 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a general-purpose CHERI CPU ship ≥10,000 units by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a publicly available AI with Anthropic Mythos-level capabilities before 2027?
Manifold MarketsSOAI#2: A major AI lab leans back into open-sourcing frontier models to win over the current US administration
Manifold MarketsUS Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?
PolymarketThird-best AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketThird-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketRules
Publicly available: Must be available to normal users (paid ok) at some point before 2027.
- General purpose: This is based on advertising and positioning of the model.
- GPT-5.3-Codex would not count because it's positioned as a Codex-specific model, as evidenced by its exclusive availability within Codex.
- GPT-5.2 would count.
- In general if the model is released within a chatbot, that's sufficient to make it general purpose.
- Major AI Labs: For this market, this list includes OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, xAI, and DeepSeek.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-6.0pt63.4%
- 2027-12.5pt29.7%
- 2026-2.5pt6.9%
- Total Vol
- $262.9K
- 24h Vol
- $176.7K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+0.5pt85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.3pt57.7%
- ChatGPT+1.4pt26.9%
- Grok-2.4pt5.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+7.0pt9%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt79.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt11.1%
- Gemini2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $405.1K
- 24h Vol
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2027?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 64% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2027 resolve?
- A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2027 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2027 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Publicly available: Must be available to normal users (paid ok) at some point before 2027.