Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 66.5%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJun 10, 25, 5:47 PM UTCJan 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market resolves YES if a commercially available CPU implementing full CHERI capability-based memory protection ships at least 10,000 units to customers by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution Criteria:
- CPU must be capable of running a general-purpose OS (e.g., Linux, FreeBSD, or Windows).
- CHERI support means hardware-enforced capabilities per the CHERI architecture developed by the University of Cambridge.
- “Shipped” means physically delivered to customers or integrators (not just manufactured or pre-ordered).
- Units shipped can be documented via press releases, credible news sources, financial filings, or direct statements from vendors.
Open markets
Tech
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-29.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-6.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $724.5K
- 24h Vol
- $674.2K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+46.0pt99%
- Houston+61.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+3.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704.2K
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $75,000 or above99%
- $74,750 or above99%
- $75,250 or above98%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $483.2K
- 24h Vol
- $482.8K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+7.0pt33.6%
- 160-179+4.0pt28.9%
- 200-219-3.0pt15.4%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $73,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $72,500 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+26.0pt91%
- 65-89-14.0pt9%
- <40-24.4pt0%
+7 more outcomes
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- BTC 15 min · $78,917.56 target
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 9, 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a general-purpose CHERI CPU ship ≥10,000 units by end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 67% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a general-purpose CHERI CPU ship ≥10,000 units by end of 2026? resolve?
- Will a general-purpose CHERI CPU ship ≥10,000 units by end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 31, 2027.
- How is Will a general-purpose CHERI CPU ship ≥10,000 units by end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if a commercially available CPU implementing full CHERI capability-based memory protection ships at least 10,000 units to customers by December 31, 2026.