Will there be a publicly available AI with Anthropic Mythos-level capabilities before 2027?
AIOne-Off2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:03 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 96.3%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 32 minutes ago
Apr 15, 26, 5:03 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRules
This description was generated by AI.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before January 1, 2027, an AI model (or a service powered by such a model) is released for general public access—defined as being available for use via web interface, API, or open-weights download—that is widely recognized by the AI research community to possess reasoning, coding, or creative capabilities comparable to or exceeding Anthropic's "Mythos" model.
- If no such model is publicly available by this date, the market will resolve to "No."
- Resolution will be based on a consensus of leading AI publications, industry analysis, and technical benchmarks.
- Anthropic has characterized certain iterations or planned developments within their model hierarchy as possessing advanced capabilities, sometimes internally codenamed or referred to in competitive contexts.
