Will there be a publicly available AI with Anthropic Mythos-level capabilities before 2027?
AIOne-Off3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 96.3%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleApr 15, 26, 5:03 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRules
This description was generated by AI.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before January 1, 2027, an AI model (or a service powered by such a model) is released for general public access—defined as being available for use via web interface, API, or open-weights download—that is widely recognized by the AI research community to possess reasoning, coding, or creative capabilities comparable to or exceeding Anthropic's "Mythos" model.
- If no such model is publicly available by this date, the market will resolve to "No."
- Resolution will be based on a consensus of leading AI publications, industry analysis, and technical benchmarks.
- Anthropic has characterized certain iterations or planned developments within their model hierarchy as possessing advanced capabilities, sometimes internally codenamed or referred to in competitive contexts.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-6.0pt63.4%
- 2027-12.5pt29.7%
- 2026-2.5pt6.9%
- Total Vol
- $262.9K
- 24h Vol
- $176.7K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+0.5pt85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.3pt57.7%
- ChatGPT+1.4pt26.9%
- Grok-2.4pt5.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+7.0pt9%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt79.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt11.1%
- Gemini2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $405.1K
- 24h Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be a publicly available AI with Anthropic Mythos-level capabilities before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 96% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will there be a publicly available AI with Anthropic Mythos-level capabilities before 2027? resolve?
- Will there be a publicly available AI with Anthropic Mythos-level capabilities before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will there be a publicly available AI with Anthropic Mythos-level capabilities before 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This description was generated by AI.