Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 99%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleApr 9, 26, 3:13 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Claude 3 Opus model weights publicly available by EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsLoans against Polymarket positions widely available before EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsGoogle AI Glasses Available by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a publicly available AI with Anthropic Mythos-level capabilities before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a non-lab AI-only effort solve a Millennium Problem in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official model weights for the video-generation AI model currently codenamed "HappyHorse-1.0" on Artificial Analysis (https://artificialanalysis.ai/video/leaderboard/text-to-video) are released to the general public for download (e.g., via Hugging Face, GitHub, or an official website) on or before 11:59:59 PM Eastern on December 31, 2026.
- If the weights are not made publicly available by this time, the market will resolve to "No."
- This description was generated by AI.
