Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 77.3%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJul 1, 25, 9:48 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the model weights for Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus are publicly available by December 31, 2030. "Publicly available" means that the complete model weights are accessible to the general public without significant restrictions, such as - Through an official release by Anthropic - A public torrent of a leak of the weights
- A "significant restriction" would be something like "X anon on Discord has a copy of the weights but is only providing them to close friends" or "You must go through XYZ 2-month approval process by Anthropic to receive access"
- Additional constraints: - It must be available for at least 7 days, but the market tracks the start date.
- So if it's available for 7 days starting December 30th, this will resolve YES.
- But if it was only ever available for 1 hour on Jan 12th 2027, and nobody made a known public reupload, the market would resolve NO - If the model architecture is particularly unconventional, associated inference code must be available, such that the knowledge of how to run the model isn't gate-kept
