Will a state actor or other group succeed at stealing GPT-4 model weights by the end of 2026?
AIOne-Off2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 82.1%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJul 21, 23, 9:05 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if there is credible evidence (by OpenAI or others) that an actor external to OpenAI has succeeded in illicitly gaining access to GPT-4 weights.
- The evidence doesn't have to be 100% conclusive, but e.g. a rumor wouldn't count.
- Resolves NO if there is no evidence that anyone has succeeded at stealing GPT-4 weights by the end of 2026.
- Not sufficient to resolve YES::
- If model weights are leaked by a disgruntled employee, but there is no reason to suspect coordinated action by any group.
- Someone steals weights of a non-GPT-4 frontier model, or the weights of GPT-5