πΊπΈπ¨π³ Will the U.S. and China announce reciprocal tariff cuts by September 24?
Bonds & TreasuriesOne-OffTrade PolicyUS PoliticsChina2dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72.5%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Sep 17, 26, 5:24 PM UTCSep 22, 26, 10:00 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will AI be the #1 reason for job cuts in September?
KalshiUS Challenger job cuts in September
KalshiDOGE cuts $1T federal deficit by FY 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS effective tariff rate for Q3 2026
KalshiWill Trump announce a new tariff/immigration policy by end of September 2026?β
Manifold MarketsTrump cut a check as tariff rebate before midterms?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if, by the end of September 24, 2026, the governments of the United States and China officially announce an agreement under which both countries will reduce existing tariffs on imports from the other country.
- The agreement does not need to cover all existing tariffs, and the reductions do not need to have already taken effect.
- A clear reciprocal commitment to specific tariff reductions is sufficient.
- A unilateral tariff reduction by only one country does not qualify.
- An extension of the existing trade truce without new reciprocal tariff reductions does not qualify.
