KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Exactly 3.85% 36.6%-14.0ptLeader of 7 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
37 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$210.7
Liquidity
$1.8K
Low liquiditySpread
6.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Sep 18, 26, 12:45 PM UTCSep 21, 26, 11:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for September 18, 2026 is at most 3.82%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- The Underlying is the initially reported SOFR for September 18, 2026 in the table named “Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data” in the column labeled “Rate (%)”.
- Later revisions will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for September 18, 2026 is exactly 3.83%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for September 18, 2026 is exactly 3.84%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for September 18, 2026 is exactly 3.85%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Bonds & Treasuries
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 4.5%+11.2pt100%
- 4.6%+4.9pt100%
- 4.8%+7.9pt100%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $527.5K
- 24h Vol
- $9.9K
POLYMARKETHow high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 5.40%-9.5pt83%
- 5.45%-0.5pt74%
- 5.50%-4.5pt57%
+6 more outcomes
POLYMARKETHow low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- Below 5.20%61%
- Below 5.15%+8.5pt56%
- Below 5.10%-2.0pt43%
+6 more outcomes
POLYMARKETHow low will 30-year Treasury yield get in September?
- Below 5.24%-0.5pt19%
- Below 5.21%-1.0pt13%
- Below 5.12%+1.1pt4%
+6 more outcomes
KALSHIHow high will the 30Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?
- 5.3% or above99%
- 5.31% or above99%
- 5.33% or above99%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $24.3K
- 24h Vol
- $2.1K
KALSHI10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?
- 4.75% or above-1.0pt73%
- 5% or above+6.0pt61%
- 5.1% or above+9.0pt58%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
- How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
- How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- How low will the 30Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 21, 2026?
- How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in September?
- UST par yield curve (2Y) at end of Q3 2026
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for SOFR for September 18, 2026?
- Kalshi prices Exactly 3.85% at 37% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does SOFR for September 18, 2026 resolve?
- SOFR for September 18, 2026 is scheduled to resolve on September 21, 2026.
- How is SOFR for September 18, 2026 settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for September 18, 2026 is at most 3.82%, then the market resolves to Yes.